Examining betting angles to four key college football games

VSiN’s college football expert offers up his betting angles for some featured games on the holiday weekend slate.

Mississippi at Mississippi State (-1.5, 63.5)

I cannot tell you how excited I am about this game being on Thanksgiving. While this real estate is normally reserved for the NFL, the Egg Bowl is perfect in this spot. In terms of the actual game, this is fascinating.

Ole Miss, having just won its ninth game of the year, is a small ’dog at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs know this kind of game well. While they’ve lost four times, they’ve covered the spread in the last four and played really well against quality teams. Outside of a blowout loss against Alabama, Mike Leach’s team has been tough. And as coaching searches around the country take a gander at Lane Kiffin, I really lean toward Mississippi State and QB Will Rogers in this spot.

Ohio State (-8.5, 64.5) at Michigan

Jim Harbaugh is looking to lead Michigan to a win over Big Ten rival Ohio State.
AP

One of the best rivalries in all of sports is drenched in intrigue. CJ Stroud was superb last Saturday, and his growth over the past month has been evident. In the past two weeks, Ryan Day’s team has scored 115 points on Purdue and Michigan State. Frankly, it could have been more. (Ohio State obviously covered in both of those games).

Playing against Michigan in Ann Arbor should, however, present a bit of a different challenge. The Wolverines have been superb to backers this year, and the defense has done the heavy lifting. Can it do enough to slow down an offense that looks unstoppable? Can Jim Harbaugh finally conquer his greatest demon? Tall order this week.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-4, 50.5)

Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders runs past Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson.
Getty Images

First and foremost, I love Bedlam. It might be the most underappreciated rivalry in college football. Second, this feels a little strange. Oklahoma State does not normally assume the role of favorite in this matchup, although it feels plenty appropriate. The Pokes just delivered a 23-0 shutout as a 10-point favorite over Texas Tech, and they now have the nation’s second-ranked scoring defense (tied with mighty A&M). OK State has also not lost a game against the spread since Sept. 11, which is wild.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, is coming off a 28-21 win (and cover) over Iowa State. The Sooners have been up and down, especially at quarterback. They’re also 1-4 ATS on the road this year, which is not a good sign heading into this one.

Oregon State at Oregon (-7, 61.5)

Noah Sewell and Oregon have their eyes on the Pac-12 North title.
Getty Images

Talk about a difference in experiences and emotions for football teams. On one side, there is Oregon. The Ducks were absolutely clobbered by Utah as a short underdog, thus putting an end to their playoff hopes. Oregon State, however, delivered a suffocating win over Arizona State. Both teams can still win the Pac-12 North, although Oregon’s path is cleaner. Win and they’re in.

I can’t say I’ve loved what I have seen from the Ducks of late, even when they’ve covered. And Oregon State, while lively, has also been a tad inconsistent. My issue in this game for the Beavers is offense; if they can deliver enough of it, they have a chance. But playing at home, I tend to lean Oregon.